Federal Reserve Bank on the current recovery…the good and the bad.

Last week I attended an SIOR event that featured a speaker from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, here are my notes.

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Recovery from 2009 has not been as strong as past recessions. Why?
1. Hesitant growth since 2009
2. Spike in financial stress. Tight lending principals. Now stress is low.
Solutions:
1. Fed has kept Fed Fund target rate close to zero. Fed raised rate 50 basis points in Dec 2015
2. Quantitative easing. Buying securities, fed holds over $4T.
Impacts:
1. Food below inflation
2. Energy (oil) price are low.
3. Long term unemployed (more than 6 months) is at its highest historical level, but it is going down. One example would be people who want to work full time only working part time.
4. Labor force participation is low, but getting better. One reason may be wages have not increased.
5. Broad based recovery. Auto and auto parts/components. Fed sees a 2.4% manufacturing increase in 2017.
6. Dollar has been increasing. Good for US consumer detrimental for exports/manufacturing.
Next:
1. Inflation is beginning to increase +\-2%.
2. Employment has been steady, but not growing too much.
3. IL. Unemployment is creeping up (bad).
4. Housing starts are increasing steadily over 1M per year.
5. Interest rates are staying low.

Client saves cash and risk exposure

DanSmo

 The Modal Group completes sublease in less than 60 days.

CHICAGO-In early 2013 The Modal Group represented a company that leased an air cargo facility in Bensenville, IL in the  O’Hare submarket of Chicago.  In 2014 that same company realized they needed to suspend the Bensenville operation so they engaged Daniel Smolensky, SIOR of The Modal Group to sublease the space. In less than 60 days the client had a fully executed sublease and their financial exposure and risk was diverted to the subtenant. With an aggressive marketing campaign Smolensky had over 5 showings and four offers in the first two weeks.  Smolensky continued to receive offers and negotiate with interested parties in the weeks to come and then settled on a company that was the best fit.  The rent will cover 100% of the client’s exposure including utilities.

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SIOR- “The best of the best”

SIOR- “The best of the best”

I am so proud and fortunate to be part of the SIOR global network (www.sior.com)  So far in 2013 we’ve needed assistance in 3 national requirements, in 9 cities and every time my SIOR comrade (some who I’ve never met) has provided outstanding service and market information.